A few months back, I profiled the Elite Stock-Market Advisory of Scott S. Fraser, and how I thought it was a remarkably bad investment. As of today, there is a single stock that has actually moved higher from that group, but I have now been chosen as the lucky recipient of another advisory, so I thought I would see if Scott is doing any better.
The first thing I noticed is there is a featured stock – but there isn’t a basket. What’s even more interesting is that with the exception of one of the stocks from the last group being pointed out as a winner, not a single one is even mentioned in this group. For less than a year later, that’s a warning sign in my book. As to the details, let’s take a deeper look and see what we can learn.
Probably the scariest thing about the original group is that the featured stock, Lusora Healthcare Systems, changed their name to Western Standard Energy, to better reflect the focus of the company. So a small upcoming company focused on healthcare suddenly shifts direction to focus on oil exploration? That’s a warning sign if I ever heard it.
This advisory also mentions Scott’s historical picks.
We get Fox Petroleum (FXPE), picked at $1.08 and rocketed up to $3.56. This one seems like it might be possible. On September 24, the price was $3.56 at close. You’d have to get awfully lucky to sell right then. And you could have bought right when Scott picked it – though if you didn’t sell at the right time, you’d now be down to $1.07, and that was left out.
Then we get True North Energy (TNEN), the lone stock from the last advisory, and it’s mentioned that it was picked at $1.85 and it shot up to $6.02. But I couldn’t find a mention of it at $6.02, and to make matters worse, it’s at $0.30 right now! Perhaps Scott is good at picking things when they go up, but he really needs to let us know when to get out before they go down again!
Next up is Eden Energy (EDNE), chosen for the list at $2.80 and then increasing to $9.96. A good pick to be sure, but it was $9.96 in mid-2005, and it is just $0.78 now, again proving that the important part isn’t picking, it’s telling people when to get out.
An interesting observation because Scott actually points out that hesitation equals lost profits, right there on the front page of his advisory. I can only assume he means to indicate that it’s for getting into a stock, but I think it’s hesitation in getting out in time from one of these clunkers!
You have to do a little more digging to get information on the other stocks in this issue, and it has Ultra Petroleum (UPL), perhaps most unique because it is a stock listed on the NYSE. Here, Scott says that he was the first to recommend it at $1 per share. A fine feat if it’s true, as this stock closed at $3.12 in January of 2001, the earliest I could find (this is a split-adjusted level). So if he recommended it at $1, it was quite a ways back, and I’d like to see evidence of it, because he says that it’s up to $120 pre-split. The odd thing is that right now it’s trading at $68.07 and the last split was in 2005!
The next stock is Pennaco Energy, and Scott says he recommended it at $2.50, which can’t be verified (of course), and he does say that it was bought by Marathon Oil for $19 per share. This last part is true, so again, I’d like to see if he did make this call. If so, it’s the first one he may have right. You can’t always bet on acquisition, but it’s a decent one if he called it as such, rather than just lucking into it.
Finally, on the “why I’m a good stock picker” list, Scott tells us that he said to buy American Oil & Gas under $1 per share, which could have been done as recently as 2004, and it moved “over $8”. This is true, as it hit $8.01 at closing on November 30, 2006. Again, you’d have to time it just right, but it is technically accurate. So know what you’re getting into.
As to Scott’s pick this time around? That would be Park Place Energy (PRPL), which is in good position for oil and gas exploration. He says that you should buy under $1.50. This shouldn’t be a problem, since it’s at 0.89, and it hasn’t done much more since it started trading in late July. If the earlier advisory is any indication, we should see prices of $0.40 before the next year passes. Don’t say that I didn’t warn you!